Solar Forecast

Solar power forecasts for up to 15 days ahead

We offer forecasting that is based on the most accurate Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and satellite-to-irradiance models. Accurate forecasting combined with 15+ years of experience in solar energy modelling makes us the best partner for your solar PV forecasting needs.

solar power forecast

Why choose Solargis forecasting

Forecasts up to 15 days ahead, based on the best NWP models

Solargis forecasts for 0 up to 15 days are based on the post-processing of meteorological outputs from the best performing global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model. For key markets we run post-processing of output parameters from IFS model operated by ECMWF. We use also the data from GFS model operated by NOAA where relevant. The outputs are combined with short term forecasting (nowcasting, up to 6 hours) processed by Solargis Cloud Motion Vector (CMV) model.

Nowcasting in the -1 to 6 hour timeframe

Solargis is routinely processing satellite images from 5 geo-stationary meteorological satellites. We make use of real time satellite data to forecast cloud motion in near future. Our satellite-to-irradiance model is then applied to calculate global horizontal and in-plane irradiance. The Solargis Cloud Motion Vector (CMV) model delivers more accurate data in the timeframe of -1 to 6 hours ahead. In Several regions, CMV model makes it possible to request smoothly solar and PV data from recent history through present time to next 10 days.

More accurate approach to PV power calculation

PV power production can be calculated from solar irradiance and temperature forecasts using either (semi)physical or statistical approaches. Solargis PV power forecasts are based on semi-physical models that make use of PV system configuration information. It also gives more accurate results compared to the statistical methods that requires upfront use of historical solar or PV data as inputs to the model. For Solargis, user-supplied data are only option for accuracy enhancement.

Reporting of forecast accuracy metrics and accuracy enhancements

In addition to receiving Solargis forecasts you can also opt to receive forecast performance reports at interval up to every month. The service helps you to understand the accuracy of Solargis forecasts and for us to identify systematic errors and fine-tune our models for improved forecasting accuracy for your solar power plants.

Forecast for PV trackers also available

We have implemented algorithms to calculate plane-of-array solar irradiance and PV power output for most types of tracker systems.

How Solargis is improving solar power forecasts Just as there are horses for courses, different forecasting techniques are more suitable depending on the intended forecast lead time. Ground-based and satellite-based methods offer best forecast skill for forecast lead time of few hours ahead. Beyond that NWP models offer best forecast skill. A combination of models provides better forecast than any individual forecast model.
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